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Pipeline & Findings — every node is committed

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what this is

what the number means
how it was produced
DATA · EIA-930 + FERC-714
MODEL · perm-iTransformer
EXPERIMENTS · the graveyard (13 dropped)
EVAL · 2025 hold-ex-LDWP
SHIPPED
⚡
EIA-930
42 BA × 7yr · 4.4M rows
📄
FERC-714 XBRL
+29% tokens
🔒
8 holdout BAs
never trained
🧱
super-panel
BA + utility tokens
🧠
perm-iTrans L
2.17M · cross-BA attn
🎯
L×40-80ep
1.03%
🤖
Foundation models
Chronos/Sundial/TabPFN
3.3–4.0%
🔀
BA-mixup
refuted ×5 seeds
🧩
MoE routing
N saturates
🏭
GridLAB-D / ResStock
synth too noisy
🔌
interchange + fuel-mix
val regressed
🌍
pre-2018 / ENTSO-E
distribution shift
🌡️
HRRR weather
+0.01pp (noise)
🔧
FERC parser fix
4/27 recoverable · sub-noise
📈
scaling-law floor
E∞ 0.84-0.91%
🔋
dispatch value
86-89%
📐
per-BA ACI
cover 0.66→0.80
🧹
LDWP cleaning
3.01→2.34%
✓
SOTA MAPE
1.030%
📦
SOTA checkpoint
L × 40-80ep
📝
paper (PDF)
3 findings + graveyard
📊
site (you are here)
explorer · scoreboard · this
data / training flow derived signal / eval ● ship · win ◌ dropped (dashed)